Tuesday, November 23, 2010
dont make no sense
To me: The plot that Lucifer goes against the will of God is ludicrous, since the premise is that nothing strays away from the will of God.
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
scribble
the sub conscious is a terrible place. we have a terrible understanding of the conscious part of ourselves, sub conscious is a whole different league. it has in it deeply seated thoroughly processed ideas, highly opinionated answers which, on the face of it, a person would deny any bias whatsoever.
the outcome or behavior of the sub conscious ,when manifested, can be termed as highly irrational, mainly because it contradicts the rational lie that the conscious self is purporting. we all have a mad man inside of us. a state when he is sedated and when he is active. more specifically we function in 2 states:
1. an irrational state - here the mind primarily becomes reptilian and seeks out to protect itself through whatever means necessary.
2. not so irrational but not completely rational state - no man can be completely rational. there are a few strands of irrationality found.
state #2 is where the person usually stays when he is not in stress. when a man is left to fend for himself is when he is more often in state #1 than in state #2.
we are in stress as a result of fear. fear is one strong emotion that evokes the darkest of behavior in us. and in hindsight one often wonders about the course of actions that he had undertaken. what had seemingly made sense then,now in hindsight, makes him question his decisions.
today, we live in a world with high stress levels. and people constantly try to address this issue through a variety of means. not being aware of any and also of their efficacy, i think the solution resides in addressing something more innate. one of the primary feeling / emotion / idea that needs bolstering up is confidence.
for any situation resulting in stress, we can perform a simple cost benefit analysis. check if there can be anything that can be done about it. if not, then accept it and move ahead and work on the losses. it ,however, is not an easy thing to do. the hardest part is the first sentence. followed by the third part. and i say this because they address the emotional part of the brain - which is prone to irrationality.
in the first point, i suggest performing a cost benefit analysis. a cost benefit analysis can be performed 1. subjectively and 2. objectively. objectively is more difficult and not possible every time but with training we can get better if not by a good margin. similarly in the third point consoling ourselves / the conscious self is more like suppressing the sub conscious ( which is stronger as we are in stress).
this makes me wonder though if we were like spock ( the star trek character who is completely rational), we would be stress free and not have a sub conscious at all, atleast have it on mute. what would it be like to be completely rational? one thing for sure is that it would be less fun.
that said, i am not sure if i would want to know the make up of my sub conscious. i think it is too scary for me to come to terms with.
notes:
i mainly speak about sub conscious promoting dark thoughts which certainly is not the case. the sub conscious is responsible for all emotions that are primitive. i just chose to highlight the ones relevant to the topic.
the outcome or behavior of the sub conscious ,when manifested, can be termed as highly irrational, mainly because it contradicts the rational lie that the conscious self is purporting. we all have a mad man inside of us. a state when he is sedated and when he is active. more specifically we function in 2 states:
1. an irrational state - here the mind primarily becomes reptilian and seeks out to protect itself through whatever means necessary.
2. not so irrational but not completely rational state - no man can be completely rational. there are a few strands of irrationality found.
state #2 is where the person usually stays when he is not in stress. when a man is left to fend for himself is when he is more often in state #1 than in state #2.
we are in stress as a result of fear. fear is one strong emotion that evokes the darkest of behavior in us. and in hindsight one often wonders about the course of actions that he had undertaken. what had seemingly made sense then,now in hindsight, makes him question his decisions.
today, we live in a world with high stress levels. and people constantly try to address this issue through a variety of means. not being aware of any and also of their efficacy, i think the solution resides in addressing something more innate. one of the primary feeling / emotion / idea that needs bolstering up is confidence.
for any situation resulting in stress, we can perform a simple cost benefit analysis. check if there can be anything that can be done about it. if not, then accept it and move ahead and work on the losses. it ,however, is not an easy thing to do. the hardest part is the first sentence. followed by the third part. and i say this because they address the emotional part of the brain - which is prone to irrationality.
in the first point, i suggest performing a cost benefit analysis. a cost benefit analysis can be performed 1. subjectively and 2. objectively. objectively is more difficult and not possible every time but with training we can get better if not by a good margin. similarly in the third point consoling ourselves / the conscious self is more like suppressing the sub conscious ( which is stronger as we are in stress).
this makes me wonder though if we were like spock ( the star trek character who is completely rational), we would be stress free and not have a sub conscious at all, atleast have it on mute. what would it be like to be completely rational? one thing for sure is that it would be less fun.
that said, i am not sure if i would want to know the make up of my sub conscious. i think it is too scary for me to come to terms with.
notes:
i mainly speak about sub conscious promoting dark thoughts which certainly is not the case. the sub conscious is responsible for all emotions that are primitive. i just chose to highlight the ones relevant to the topic.
Monday, August 16, 2010
love
"Have you ever been in love? Horrible, isn't it? It makes you so vulnerable. It opens your chest and it opens your heart and it means someone can get inside you and mess you up. You build up all these defenses. You build up this whole armor, for years, so nothing can hurt you, then one stupid person, no different from any other stupid person, wanders into your stupid life. You give them a piece of you. They don't ask for it. They do something dumb one day like kiss you, or smile at you, and then your life isn't your own anymore. Love takes hostages. It gets inside you. It eats you out and leaves you crying in the darkness, so a simple phrase like 'Maybe we should just be friends' or 'How very perceptive' turns into a glass splinter working its way into your heart. It hurts. Not just in the imagination. Not just in the mind. It's a soul-hurt, a body-hurt, a real gets-inside-you-and-rips-you-apart pain. Nothing should be able to do that. Especially not love. I hate love." ~ Rose Walker (Neil Gaiman's "The Sandman: The Kindly Ones")
Sunday, June 13, 2010
equation for the future - part 1
in all things scientific, we have a rock solid explanation for everything. well i thought so till i read a very interesting book. it may be rock solid at the level of our observance / needs. but if we were to delve much deeper, chances are the same explanations might not hold true for similar behaviors. and these usually don't matter unless we really care about things at that level.
the book made me question could there be an equation to predict the future reasonably well? the reason for the question to occur is largely due to the book i am reading. to be succinct, if we aren't able to formulate an equation for a phenomenon, we aren't looking at it from a scale where we have enough information. put differently, all the participants required for the phenomenon are very chaotic to be represented as a formula. however if chaotic participants are looked at a level where their cumulative behavior is in order, that is when you can formulate an equation to represent the phenomenon ( which might be a level lower than we are currently looking at it).
this means that any idea can be represented as an equation. different ideas obviously will have a varying scale of observation for us to qualify an equation.
back to my original question? can we formulate an equation that will predict the future? notice, i modified my question, in it, i don't have reasonably the second time anymore. there are two reasons :
1. the equations are formulated to give out an exact value ( whilst formulating the equations, there might be certain assumptions made that introduce an error ).
2. if they introduce the error into the value, that means the system has not been examined well enough to adjust the error.
therefore, i can effectively say that since we formulate an equation, it should be able to predict the future with absolute accuracy.
so all this while, i have been circling the topic but have not actually addressed it. can we predict the future? lets talk it out on the factors affecting the system in the order of importance.
1. your actions - the main driving force for your
2. people around you who influence your decision.
3. other external factors (chaos theory).
notice that #3 can sometimes be really aggravated sometimes small enough to disqualify. this introduces the error into our equation.
enough for part 1. i hope this is going somewhere . i have no idea as to where it going as of now and what i type is something sort of an extempore.
cheers,
the book made me question could there be an equation to predict the future reasonably well? the reason for the question to occur is largely due to the book i am reading. to be succinct, if we aren't able to formulate an equation for a phenomenon, we aren't looking at it from a scale where we have enough information. put differently, all the participants required for the phenomenon are very chaotic to be represented as a formula. however if chaotic participants are looked at a level where their cumulative behavior is in order, that is when you can formulate an equation to represent the phenomenon ( which might be a level lower than we are currently looking at it).
this means that any idea can be represented as an equation. different ideas obviously will have a varying scale of observation for us to qualify an equation.
back to my original question? can we formulate an equation that will predict the future? notice, i modified my question, in it, i don't have reasonably the second time anymore. there are two reasons :
1. the equations are formulated to give out an exact value ( whilst formulating the equations, there might be certain assumptions made that introduce an error ).
2. if they introduce the error into the value, that means the system has not been examined well enough to adjust the error.
therefore, i can effectively say that since we formulate an equation, it should be able to predict the future with absolute accuracy.
so all this while, i have been circling the topic but have not actually addressed it. can we predict the future? lets talk it out on the factors affecting the system in the order of importance.
1. your actions - the main driving force for your
2. people around you who influence your decision.
3. other external factors (chaos theory).
notice that #3 can sometimes be really aggravated sometimes small enough to disqualify. this introduces the error into our equation.
enough for part 1. i hope this is going somewhere . i have no idea as to where it going as of now and what i type is something sort of an extempore.
cheers,
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Saturday, May 15, 2010
mein sharabi hoon
Kissi Pe Husn Ka Guroor Jawaani Ka Nasha
Kissi Ke Dil Pe Mohabbat Ki Rawaani Ka Nasha
Kissi Ko Dekhke Saanso Se Ubharta Hai Nasha
Bina Piye Bhi Kahin Hadh Se Guzarta Hai Nasha
Nashe Mein Kaun Nahin Hai Mujhe Bataao Zara
Kisse Hai Hosh Mere Saamne To Laao Zara
Nasha Hai Sab Pe Magar Rang Nashe Ka Hai Juda
Khili Khili Hui Subah Pe Hai Shabnam Ka Nasha
Hawa Pe Khushbu Ka Baadal Pe Hai Rimjhim Ka Nasha
Kahin Suroor Hai Khushiyon Ka Kahin Gham Ka Nasha
Nasha Sharaab Mein Hota To Naachti Botal
Maikade Jhoomte Paimaanon Mein Hoti Hulchul
Nasha Sharaab Mein Hota To Naachti Botal
Nashe Mein Kaun Nahin Hai Mujhe Bataao Zara
Kissi Ke Dil Pe Mohabbat Ki Rawaani Ka Nasha
Kissi Ko Dekhke Saanso Se Ubharta Hai Nasha
Bina Piye Bhi Kahin Hadh Se Guzarta Hai Nasha
Nashe Mein Kaun Nahin Hai Mujhe Bataao Zara
Kisse Hai Hosh Mere Saamne To Laao Zara
Nasha Hai Sab Pe Magar Rang Nashe Ka Hai Juda
Khili Khili Hui Subah Pe Hai Shabnam Ka Nasha
Hawa Pe Khushbu Ka Baadal Pe Hai Rimjhim Ka Nasha
Kahin Suroor Hai Khushiyon Ka Kahin Gham Ka Nasha
Nasha Sharaab Mein Hota To Naachti Botal
Maikade Jhoomte Paimaanon Mein Hoti Hulchul
Nasha Sharaab Mein Hota To Naachti Botal
Nashe Mein Kaun Nahin Hai Mujhe Bataao Zara
Friday, April 23, 2010
Monday, April 12, 2010
my first take on rap
Title: Dreams
Date : 04/12/2010
Dreams are fazing
Escaping
Pondering if they are mocking
At you for believing
That you could fly,
With arms wide and head high
Here is a word of advice
There isn't going to be a reprise,
You will be left in frays in the world
Filled with anarchists
And a whole lot of narcissists
Dull dumb drones
Resistant to change
So they bring anyone down
Sap all the juice
Reduce
But no matter what you do,
Believe in you,
The world won't, cause there are lotsa fools
Accept no substitutes
The journey is rough, its tough and lonely
So buck up, pack up
And spread your wings.
Its like a battle
You are the Lucifer and they come from the heavens
You will fall
And fall and fall
And fall
But not without a rattle
So loud
That even the cattle
Will tremble and fumble
Before your mere presence
You know there's difference
You made an interference
But best be aware
That this is just a start
You have a lot more to take apart
Dreams are not fazing,
They aren't even escaping
It's your call,
Take it or fall.
Title: Dreams
Date : 04/12/2010
Dreams are fazing
Escaping
Pondering if they are mocking
At you for believing
That you could fly,
With arms wide and head high
Here is a word of advice
There isn't going to be a reprise,
You will be left in frays in the world
Filled with anarchists
And a whole lot of narcissists
Dull dumb drones
Resistant to change
So they bring anyone down
Sap all the juice
Reduce
But no matter what you do,
Believe in you,
The world won't, cause there are lotsa fools
Accept no substitutes
The journey is rough, its tough and lonely
So buck up, pack up
And spread your wings.
Its like a battle
You are the Lucifer and they come from the heavens
You will fall
And fall and fall
And fall
But not without a rattle
So loud
That even the cattle
Will tremble and fumble
Before your mere presence
You know there's difference
You made an interference
But best be aware
That this is just a start
You have a lot more to take apart
Dreams are not fazing,
They aren't even escaping
It's your call,
Take it or fall.
Tuesday, April 06, 2010
Sunday, March 28, 2010
how i met your mother
having found nothing to do and being utterly bored, i decided to ensconce and watch how i met your mother?
turns out it isnt so funny. it is a bad mixture of comedy and a sitcom. they never gel together.
i will tell you whats funny? seinfeld, simpsons- two of the greatest shows ever!
'nuf said!
turns out it isnt so funny. it is a bad mixture of comedy and a sitcom. they never gel together.
i will tell you whats funny? seinfeld, simpsons- two of the greatest shows ever!
'nuf said!
Sunday, March 21, 2010
price
the price you pay to follow your dreams is a costly one, yet if it is worthwhile or not, is something only time is aware of. and it is known to keep its cards close to its chest, but the strategy to play them is beyond it.
kyos
kyos
Sunday, February 21, 2010
design patters my foot
for the past few days, i was browsing through some of the interview questions on object oriented designing. what was peppered around the questions where, prospective candidates carelessly throwing out jargon of design patterns.
i don't know if they fully comprehend these design patterns to the fullest to make such a commentary on their usage, but i know that being constricted to rules often lets you settle for less optimum solutions.
i find design patterns to be useless. for some, i have committed heresy. because they introduce restrictions to our thought processes. if we apply ourselves to it, i am sure we will be able to build up designs in level with the design patterns. this however will come with experience.
and jargons were only created for the deceits to cover their tracks!
cheers
i don't know if they fully comprehend these design patterns to the fullest to make such a commentary on their usage, but i know that being constricted to rules often lets you settle for less optimum solutions.
i find design patterns to be useless. for some, i have committed heresy. because they introduce restrictions to our thought processes. if we apply ourselves to it, i am sure we will be able to build up designs in level with the design patterns. this however will come with experience.
and jargons were only created for the deceits to cover their tracks!
cheers
Saturday, February 20, 2010
one night at on an i.t. company
so chetan bhagat wrote one night at a call center. not having read that book, and judging the book by its cover, i believe i can surmise it to be a story of a person who works at the call center.
now i imagine, what would be one night in an i.t. company. basically when you are rushing towards a deadline, i.t. folks usually bend their backs to meet them. as if they already weren't, considering the fact that the projects themselves were won on the unrealistic time spans and cheap cost.
come deadlines and you will find the i.t. folks stay back till wee hours of the morn, and most probably successful in meeting the deadlines. i have worked in an i.t. company sometime ago, when we weren't heading towards a deadline. so things were calm. this wasn't the case with the team at the other side of the room. they were for as long as i can remember, working towards mysterious deadlines. and as is the case everywhere, women are let go much earlier than their male counterparts ( this is what i had seen and experienced, not that i have a problem with it) and leave their onus on the folks staying back, adding more to the list.
so to complete this story, one night at an i.t. company is a sausage fest.
cheers,
p.s.: sorry if you had any expectations :P
now i imagine, what would be one night in an i.t. company. basically when you are rushing towards a deadline, i.t. folks usually bend their backs to meet them. as if they already weren't, considering the fact that the projects themselves were won on the unrealistic time spans and cheap cost.
come deadlines and you will find the i.t. folks stay back till wee hours of the morn, and most probably successful in meeting the deadlines. i have worked in an i.t. company sometime ago, when we weren't heading towards a deadline. so things were calm. this wasn't the case with the team at the other side of the room. they were for as long as i can remember, working towards mysterious deadlines. and as is the case everywhere, women are let go much earlier than their male counterparts ( this is what i had seen and experienced, not that i have a problem with it) and leave their onus on the folks staying back, adding more to the list.
so to complete this story, one night at an i.t. company is a sausage fest.
cheers,
p.s.: sorry if you had any expectations :P
Monday, February 08, 2010
sex and the mindset
the only reason why sex is such a hush hush topic is because it is not as open as talking or drinking coffee in a cafe, for the good or for the bad. and it being a natural "thing" should be dismissed just as one of those things that people do like talking or drinking coffee.
however a civilization will never let that happen.
cheers,
however a civilization will never let that happen.
cheers,
Monday, February 01, 2010
pedantic vs pedestrian
just recently, i presented this question to a bunch of my friends eliciting interesting thought processes. here it goes.
> ME
What are your thoughts ?
There is a problem statement. There are a group of experts on that statement ( say 15 -20 ) in a room. There are a 10000-50000 thousand people ( read the general population, that includes people from a cross section of variety of fields, you know knowledgeble, educated kinds) in another room.
Whom do you think will come up with better solution to the problem. The problem can be anything.
>Friend #1
I guess it will depend on the question. Lets say for eg an FMCG company comes out with some product and they are stuck up, in this case more the number of people better is the result. I guess that’s why Market research is such an important entity in these times.
Case 2: Company x wants to launch its IPO. In such a situation the 10-15 SMEs will provide a better solution.
If you are talking in a general sense, then assuming that the 10k-50k people are educated,the latter will provide a better solution.
>Friend #2:
I disagree.
I would say a group of experts will always come up with a better solution provided they are open to fresh opinions. (read some sample from the other room).
@Friend #1: you’re going into an altogether different trajectory. You’re combining two different fundas and coming with a wrong conclusion. Market research is different from decision making. Taking your example, lets say ITC wants to market its two new cigar products. One is Columbian, you know privileged kind and other is mass product a la king Edwards. People in 1st room will do market research and come up with sales and marketing strategy based upon responses from 2nd room but decision will theirs. 2nd room is just sample population.
Another fact is bell curve. Decision making time considerably goes down as number of people increases after a certain point of time. That’s why we have reprsentatives.
>ME
No information is exchanged between rooms, but information is exchanged inside the rooms.
>Friend #2
that was just an example. 2nd room can be outside world.
>Friend #1
I understand that Market research is only a basis to reach the solution and not the soultion itself. That said,its part of the solution all right. The experts from ITC will not be able to reach the solution without the data retrieved from MR.
Another fact is that experts are rigid with their views, and assuming that they are not allowed to take outside views, the solution might not be the best possible answer. I will still go with the larger group of people and then get some rep from among them to conclude the preccedings and come out with one common solution
>ME
I agree with Friend #1's stance but with a different argument. Taking reference to what Friend #1 posted in his firstly reply, it can be concluded that the accuracy of the decision or say the guidance to the correct solution is derived from the benefactor of the solution / decision to the said problem. Thus in the first case, the public was the benefactor ( in a way) so the public opinion mattered a lot more as the product was going to be manufactured ( or whatever) as per the constraints of the public ( ideally all opinions would have been met, in reality some are omitted ). In the second case, the company was the prime benefactor and hence the decisions were to be made by those who were completely aware of the environment of which they needed to take a decisino on.
Now in room #2 , there are, as I stated earlier, educated people, knowledgible people. Solutions to problems are more often than not a result of mere a) common sense b) observation of surroundings of the environment c) experience around which the decision has to be made. So if the dataset is small ( read common sense , observation / experience) then the chances of being "aware" or whatever are statistically lesser, despite the fact that they are experts. Lesser is always relative. Lesser here is in the terms of the 50k population, where the dataset itself is so huge that the experience (say) itself counters the solution purported by the smaller dataset. Here you are using mere 1 attribute ( not the 3 attributes listed earlier, but you might/can as well use all 3). We as humans have a learning mechanism, because of which we rely more on experience and then fall back upon common sense or whatever.
Taking your (Friend #2 argument of a bell curve, and assuming that the argument made (because it wasnt clear to me) was that the decision if plotted for the 50k dataset will result in a bell curve because they are the general audience ( and their solution would be average case) is wrong because there you are considering that each of the 50k come up with their own solution ( and thus contrasting against the solution of 15 - 20 experts), which obviously has to fail. But if there was a suitable environment / system where the solution were modeled based on the inputs of the 50k dataset, then it will either a) align with what the experts suggested b) surpass it by a long shot.
And obviously, decision making time will increase but if we have that controlled, I believe that the decision made by the general audience in a shared environment will result in a "more optimal" solution than suggested by the experts.
>Friend #1
BTW, Why did u ask the question in first place? (out of curiosity)
>Friend #2
Consider this scenario now…
Building spaceship.
Problem Statement: Whom do you think will come up with better solution to the problem. The problem can be anything.
1st Room: Experts on that problem
2nd room: general public (knowledgeable but not necessarily experts in that field)
Any decision has to be made on data. In case of FMCG, that data comes from MR and in case of satellite building, it comes from experience and knowledge.
Any decision making requires considerable knowledge, expertise and experience to lessen the risks involved. Even the FMCG decision requires knowledge and expertise. Just on the basis of MR we can’t launch the product. We have many other constraints like when, how, where to enter the market etc… hence solution provided by experts will always be better provided they are open to fresh ideas.
>Friend #1
as I said the answer is very situation specific. In general sense however the larger group will provide a better idea (space ship building me the scientists will not even bother to get public opinion. Since the question has been put up, I assume that it will be for a situation where public participation can be debated, unlike space ship or IPO or nuclear power plants etc.)
>ME
Well, as I said earlier, the prime benefactors of the decision in case of building the spaceship arent the general public, it is the organization that is intending to build ( which is only meant for public consumption once it is operational). In your argument about FMCG, the aspect of problem that you are addressing is different to what i am addressing. In your scenario, the prime benefactors are the company whose benefit is to maximize the profits or whatever. The aspect that I am addressing is shaping and manufacturing the product itself, and in htis scenario, the mass opinion will be more helpful.
To re-iterate, the accurate decision, IMO depends on the benefactors of the solution to the problem and hence the actors the general mass and the expert vary.
@Friend #1: I dunno. It just struck to me, when I was reading an article on whale hunting on time.com / some video (not sure). The gist was: A user(s) had posted a simple statement on stumbleupon.com which asked the Japan government to ban whale hunting. The popularity of a statement is dependent on the votes associated to that statement / link or content. It took time but in a matter of months, this statement alone forced the Japan government to introduce the ban, due to its popularity. So this made me think, in a hypothetical scenario if the public is given an opportunity to decide something on a problem, and then say submit their decision in a restricted time and present it to teh local government, the government then can go over its feasibility (budgeting and crap) and take a decision to finally go ahead with it. This way the people will be responsible for the change around them and will give enough gauge to the public on governments performance to make a decision in the next elections.
Or even yet let not the public (lazy people) arrive at a solution but atleast point out the problem to the government by an online (say) voting mechanism and submit that issue.
Lastly, as an offshoot, if we were to model a game: with a reasonable lively interaction ( so as the people dont get bored of it), and model disasters or crisis or whatever, and the folks have to improve a situation, over a period of time, we are sure to get a VERY interesting / effecient techniques to say govern, distribution of supplies etc. And if we model them around real / recent ones, then once these models have matured enough, they can provide a better light to launch relief efforts and bring back normalcy. And the large audience who would participate in such a game would be users of Facebook. I know of people who spend most of their day playing mafia wars and farmville, so why not this ? But the big IF is that the modelling should be really carefully done and is very difficult.
>Friend #1:
You just gave a perfect example of Democracy. That said in the business sense of the word, democracy might not be the best option always. Whe I buy a share of a company, I actually buy the voting rights. I can vote for any decision the company makes. That said the company is not obliged to listening to me. They will only hear me out.
This works only in decisions where the onus lies with the government (talking of democratic countries) like the example you sighted
now only 2 of 5 participated in the discussion and the current state of the discussion is thus. however for a question of this nature, it needs to be put to the masses and i believe that would be a more accurate result to what is discussed above (not denying in anyway the truthfulness of the discussion so far).
what are your thoughts?
cheers,
> ME
What are your thoughts ?
There is a problem statement. There are a group of experts on that statement ( say 15 -20 ) in a room. There are a 10000-50000 thousand people ( read the general population, that includes people from a cross section of variety of fields, you know knowledgeble, educated kinds) in another room.
Whom do you think will come up with better solution to the problem. The problem can be anything.
>Friend #1
I guess it will depend on the question. Lets say for eg an FMCG company comes out with some product and they are stuck up, in this case more the number of people better is the result. I guess that’s why Market research is such an important entity in these times.
Case 2: Company x wants to launch its IPO. In such a situation the 10-15 SMEs will provide a better solution.
If you are talking in a general sense, then assuming that the 10k-50k people are educated,the latter will provide a better solution.
>Friend #2:
I disagree.
I would say a group of experts will always come up with a better solution provided they are open to fresh opinions. (read some sample from the other room).
@Friend #1: you’re going into an altogether different trajectory. You’re combining two different fundas and coming with a wrong conclusion. Market research is different from decision making. Taking your example, lets say ITC wants to market its two new cigar products. One is Columbian, you know privileged kind and other is mass product a la king Edwards. People in 1st room will do market research and come up with sales and marketing strategy based upon responses from 2nd room but decision will theirs. 2nd room is just sample population.
Another fact is bell curve. Decision making time considerably goes down as number of people increases after a certain point of time. That’s why we have reprsentatives.
>ME
No information is exchanged between rooms, but information is exchanged inside the rooms.
>Friend #2
that was just an example. 2nd room can be outside world.
>Friend #1
I understand that Market research is only a basis to reach the solution and not the soultion itself. That said,its part of the solution all right. The experts from ITC will not be able to reach the solution without the data retrieved from MR.
Another fact is that experts are rigid with their views, and assuming that they are not allowed to take outside views, the solution might not be the best possible answer. I will still go with the larger group of people and then get some rep from among them to conclude the preccedings and come out with one common solution
>ME
I agree with Friend #1's stance but with a different argument. Taking reference to what Friend #1 posted in his firstly reply, it can be concluded that the accuracy of the decision or say the guidance to the correct solution is derived from the benefactor of the solution / decision to the said problem. Thus in the first case, the public was the benefactor ( in a way) so the public opinion mattered a lot more as the product was going to be manufactured ( or whatever) as per the constraints of the public ( ideally all opinions would have been met, in reality some are omitted ). In the second case, the company was the prime benefactor and hence the decisions were to be made by those who were completely aware of the environment of which they needed to take a decisino on.
Now in room #2 , there are, as I stated earlier, educated people, knowledgible people. Solutions to problems are more often than not a result of mere a) common sense b) observation of surroundings of the environment c) experience around which the decision has to be made. So if the dataset is small ( read common sense , observation / experience) then the chances of being "aware" or whatever are statistically lesser, despite the fact that they are experts. Lesser is always relative. Lesser here is in the terms of the 50k population, where the dataset itself is so huge that the experience (say) itself counters the solution purported by the smaller dataset. Here you are using mere 1 attribute ( not the 3 attributes listed earlier, but you might/can as well use all 3). We as humans have a learning mechanism, because of which we rely more on experience and then fall back upon common sense or whatever.
Taking your (Friend #2 argument of a bell curve, and assuming that the argument made (because it wasnt clear to me) was that the decision if plotted for the 50k dataset will result in a bell curve because they are the general audience ( and their solution would be average case) is wrong because there you are considering that each of the 50k come up with their own solution ( and thus contrasting against the solution of 15 - 20 experts), which obviously has to fail. But if there was a suitable environment / system where the solution were modeled based on the inputs of the 50k dataset, then it will either a) align with what the experts suggested b) surpass it by a long shot.
And obviously, decision making time will increase but if we have that controlled, I believe that the decision made by the general audience in a shared environment will result in a "more optimal" solution than suggested by the experts.
>Friend #1
BTW, Why did u ask the question in first place? (out of curiosity)
>Friend #2
Consider this scenario now…
Building spaceship.
Problem Statement: Whom do you think will come up with better solution to the problem. The problem can be anything.
1st Room: Experts on that problem
2nd room: general public (knowledgeable but not necessarily experts in that field)
Any decision has to be made on data. In case of FMCG, that data comes from MR and in case of satellite building, it comes from experience and knowledge.
Any decision making requires considerable knowledge, expertise and experience to lessen the risks involved. Even the FMCG decision requires knowledge and expertise. Just on the basis of MR we can’t launch the product. We have many other constraints like when, how, where to enter the market etc… hence solution provided by experts will always be better provided they are open to fresh ideas.
>Friend #1
as I said the answer is very situation specific. In general sense however the larger group will provide a better idea (space ship building me the scientists will not even bother to get public opinion. Since the question has been put up, I assume that it will be for a situation where public participation can be debated, unlike space ship or IPO or nuclear power plants etc.)
>ME
Well, as I said earlier, the prime benefactors of the decision in case of building the spaceship arent the general public, it is the organization that is intending to build ( which is only meant for public consumption once it is operational). In your argument about FMCG, the aspect of problem that you are addressing is different to what i am addressing. In your scenario, the prime benefactors are the company whose benefit is to maximize the profits or whatever. The aspect that I am addressing is shaping and manufacturing the product itself, and in htis scenario, the mass opinion will be more helpful.
To re-iterate, the accurate decision, IMO depends on the benefactors of the solution to the problem and hence the actors the general mass and the expert vary.
@Friend #1: I dunno. It just struck to me, when I was reading an article on whale hunting on time.com / some video (not sure). The gist was: A user(s) had posted a simple statement on stumbleupon.com which asked the Japan government to ban whale hunting. The popularity of a statement is dependent on the votes associated to that statement / link or content. It took time but in a matter of months, this statement alone forced the Japan government to introduce the ban, due to its popularity. So this made me think, in a hypothetical scenario if the public is given an opportunity to decide something on a problem, and then say submit their decision in a restricted time and present it to teh local government, the government then can go over its feasibility (budgeting and crap) and take a decision to finally go ahead with it. This way the people will be responsible for the change around them and will give enough gauge to the public on governments performance to make a decision in the next elections.
Or even yet let not the public (lazy people) arrive at a solution but atleast point out the problem to the government by an online (say) voting mechanism and submit that issue.
Lastly, as an offshoot, if we were to model a game: with a reasonable lively interaction ( so as the people dont get bored of it), and model disasters or crisis or whatever, and the folks have to improve a situation, over a period of time, we are sure to get a VERY interesting / effecient techniques to say govern, distribution of supplies etc. And if we model them around real / recent ones, then once these models have matured enough, they can provide a better light to launch relief efforts and bring back normalcy. And the large audience who would participate in such a game would be users of Facebook. I know of people who spend most of their day playing mafia wars and farmville, so why not this ? But the big IF is that the modelling should be really carefully done and is very difficult.
>Friend #1:
You just gave a perfect example of Democracy. That said in the business sense of the word, democracy might not be the best option always. Whe I buy a share of a company, I actually buy the voting rights. I can vote for any decision the company makes. That said the company is not obliged to listening to me. They will only hear me out.
This works only in decisions where the onus lies with the government (talking of democratic countries) like the example you sighted
now only 2 of 5 participated in the discussion and the current state of the discussion is thus. however for a question of this nature, it needs to be put to the masses and i believe that would be a more accurate result to what is discussed above (not denying in anyway the truthfulness of the discussion so far).
what are your thoughts?
cheers,
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
bc
From Maximum City:
I missed saying bhenchod to people who understood it. It does not mean 'sister fucker'. That is too literal, too crude. It is, rather, punctuation, or emphasis, as innocuous a word as 'shit' or 'damn'. The different countries of India can be identified by the way each pronounces this word - from the Punjabi bhaenchod to the thin Bambaiyya pinchud to the Gujarati bhenchow to the Bhopali elaboration bhen-ka-lowda. Parsis use it all the time, grandmothers, five-year-olds, casually and without any discernible purpose except as filler: 'Here, bhenchod, get me a glass of water.' 'Arre, bhenchod, I went to the bhenchod bank today.'
I missed saying bhenchod to people who understood it. It does not mean 'sister fucker'. That is too literal, too crude. It is, rather, punctuation, or emphasis, as innocuous a word as 'shit' or 'damn'. The different countries of India can be identified by the way each pronounces this word - from the Punjabi bhaenchod to the thin Bambaiyya pinchud to the Gujarati bhenchow to the Bhopali elaboration bhen-ka-lowda. Parsis use it all the time, grandmothers, five-year-olds, casually and without any discernible purpose except as filler: 'Here, bhenchod, get me a glass of water.' 'Arre, bhenchod, I went to the bhenchod bank today.'
Thursday, January 07, 2010
Saturday, January 02, 2010
to bone or not to bone
my cousin put forth a question: why do you want a girlfriend? ( for the record it was not a consequence to any discussion whatsoever)
after much ( or little) thought i concluded:
its our primal nature to group. so to put it in a rather crude manner, we ( both sexes) have that need to bone each other. but ladies have this habit of talking about a whole lot of shit and it can become a tad irritating for us blokes. in my opinion, the reason why we wait for that someone, is merely that we stand the conversation post-act. :-P
cheers,
after much ( or little) thought i concluded:
its our primal nature to group. so to put it in a rather crude manner, we ( both sexes) have that need to bone each other. but ladies have this habit of talking about a whole lot of shit and it can become a tad irritating for us blokes. in my opinion, the reason why we wait for that someone, is merely that we stand the conversation post-act. :-P
cheers,
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